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Tropical Storm ALBERTO Public Advisory Number 6

Issued at 1100 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012


000
WTNT31 KNHC 210238
TCPAT1
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012012
1100 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
 
...ALBERTO BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AND WEAKENING...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.5N 80.1W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM ENE OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.1 WEST.  ALBERTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H.  A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FORECAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO STAY
OFFSHORE OF THE GEORGIA AND CAROLINA COASTS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND
SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH MONDAY.  PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC
TO YOUR AREA.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 


Tropical Storm ALBERTO Forecast/Advisory Number 6

Issued at 0300 UTC MON MAY 21 2012


000
WTNT21 KNHC 210237
TCMAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012012
0300 UTC MON MAY 21 2012
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N  80.1W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  20SE  30SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N  80.1W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.7N  80.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 30.6N  79.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 31.5N  77.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 33.2N  75.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 35.5N  72.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  40SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 39.0N  66.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.5N  80.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 


Tropical Storm ALBERTO Forecast Discussion Number 6

Issued at 1100 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012


000
WTNT41 KNHC 210238
TCDAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012012
1100 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
 
ALBERTO HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL BANDING FEATURES PRESENT ON THE
JACKSONVILLE DOPPLER RADAR. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS AND DOPPLER
WIND DATA SUGGEST THE STORM HAS WEAKENED...AND THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED IS REDUCED TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. LITTLE CHANGE IN
INTENSITY IS FORECAST BY MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE DUE TO ALBERTO MOVING
OVER WARM WATERS ALONG THE GULF STREAM...BUT IN A MODERATE-TO-
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE
IN INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN WEAKENING AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS. A PLAUSIBLE ALTERNATE
SCENARIO IS THAT THE STORM LOSES ALL DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO
MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS...AND BECOMES A REMNANT LOW IN A
DAY OR TWO.
 
ALBERTO HAS TURNED SOUTHWARD AND IS MOVING 180/4.  THE SYSTEM IS
EMBEDDED IN A PECULIAR PLACE WITHIN THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW.  THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON ALBERTO
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AND EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO...THEN TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE SOUTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST MODEL
TRENDS.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/0300Z 30.5N  80.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  21/1200Z 30.6N  79.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  22/0000Z 31.5N  77.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  22/1200Z 33.2N  75.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  23/0000Z 35.5N  72.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  24/0000Z 39.0N  66.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 


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